Worlds 2011: Predicting the Winners

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The All Around has gone to an awful lot of trouble and hard work to predict who may be the Worlds Women’s AA Champion, Team Champions and Event Final Champions.  The All Around has based this on scores collected throughout the year.

With all the scores we have studied three different situations:
Average: We averaged all the scores of the gymnasts, this way we can see their scoring potential and their consistency.
Highest: We took the highest score of each gymnast.
Lowest: We took the lowest score of each gymnast.
As any prediction method, this one has its flaws. We don’t have scores for some gymnasts that appear in the Nominative Roster; some National Championships have bonus and lenient scoring while other countries have harsher judging; above all of them, we are comparing results from different competitions and in different times of the year, the peaking strategies and injuries/recovering are difficult to take into account in this kind of analysis. We have taken the nominative registration as a guide to compose the teams, unless a different team has been named more recently.

The following results reflect potential team scores and placing for the 6-5-4 qualifying format; and 6-3-3 final spots.

Here are the predictions:

Vault

  1. McKayla Maroney (USA) / Alicia Sacramone (USA)
  2. Alicia Sacramone (USA)
  3. Oksana Chusovitina (GER)
Uneven Bars
  1. He Kexin (CHN)
  2. Beth Tweddle (GBR)
  3. Wu Liufang (CHN)

Beam

  1. Lauren Mitchell (AUS)
  2. Anna Dementyeva (RUS)
  3. Ana Porgras (ROM)

Floor

  1. Lauren Mitchell (AUS)
  2. Alexandra Raisman (USA)
  3. Ksenia Afanasyeva (RUS) / McKayla Maroney (USA)
All Around Predictions
  1. Jordyn Wieber (USA) / McKayla Maroney (USA) / Diana Chelaru (ROM)
  2. Lauren Mitchell (AUS)
  3. Anna Dementyeva (RUS)
Team Predictions:
  1. USA
  2. Russia
  3. China

Congratulations to all involved from the All Around, it’s truely amazing work!

What do you think, do the predictions reflect who you thought might win the titles? Leave a comment below.

 

One Comment

  1. Michael says:

    Disagree with beam predictions. Have heard Tim Dagett say the most impressive thing he has seen so far is the Chinese team on balance beam, so assuming their inconsistency doesn’t grab ahold, I’d say someone like Tan Sixin is a good bet for a BB medal. As much as I like Lauren Mitchell, I wish the difficulty of her routines didn’t depend on that awkward ugly squat turn.

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